Determine the change in the purchasing power of the ruble. Methodology for calculating average prices. Paasche and Laspeyras indices

Purchasing power (solvency) is one of the most important economic indicators. It is inversely proportional to the amount of money needed to purchase various goods and services. In other words, purchasing power shows how much the average consumer can buy goods and services for a certain amount of money under the existing

Purchasing power parity is the ratio between two or more currencies of different currencies, which reflects their purchasing power in relation to a fixed list of goods and services. According to the theory, for a certain amount of funds, converted at the existing rate into different national currencies, in different world countries you can buy the same one, provided there are no transport restrictions and costs.

For example, if the same list of products costs 1000 rubles. in the Russian Federation and $ 70 in the USA, then the purchasing power parity will have a ratio of 1000/70 = 14.29 rubles. for 1$. This concept of forming exchange rates was adopted in the 19th century. According to this principle, a change in the exchange rate entails an automatic change in commodity prices in the same ratio. However, on the basis of the real exchange rate of money can only be calculated conditionally, because there are still many factors that affect it.

The purchasing power of the population reflects the maximum amount of goods and paid services that the average consumer, at his income level, is able to purchase for his available funds at the current price level. This indicator directly depends on the share that it is ready and can spend on purchases.

To determine the changes in the volume of goods that a consumer can buy for the same amount of money in the current year in relation to the year under study, the purchasing power index is used. It shows how the nominal and real wages of the population correlate with each other, and is the opposite of the commodity price index. = This formula allows you to quickly and easily determine the level of purchasing power and shows that it directly depends on the level of well-being and security of an individual consumer and the entire population of the country.

When purchasing power increases greatly, this leads to deflation, and in the state it is observed. In this situation, in order to balance the indicators, producers must either increase the volume of commodity production or raise product prices.

When purchasing power falls, it leads to inflation and negatively affects the economy of both an individual state and the whole world. In the future, this trend may lead to a complete depreciation of the national currency. Also, the US dollar, which is the world currency, is not immune from this. If this happens, the economies of almost all countries of the world will suffer, since almost all processes in the global financial and economic sphere are tied to the US dollar.

Moscow, June 9 - “Vesti. Economy". UBS experts compiled their annual Prices and Earnings report, which includes 77 cities around the world. The experts analyzed the average earnings in each city, as well as the cost of the average shopping basket in each city. After that, they compared these two indicators and calculated the purchasing power index in each city. Simply put, this is the ratio of earnings to prices. The higher the city is ranked, the more people can afford for their salaries. Moscow with an index of 33.6 was in 59th place in the rating. Below we will highlight the top 10 cities with the highest purchasing power index in the world. 10. New York

Purchasing power index: 100.0 New York is becoming a starting point in the ranking year after year, a yardstick for comparison. The index of New York is taken as 100, and based on the comparison with this city, the indices of other cities are determined. New York is an important world financial, political, economic and cultural center. Its index does not change, as it is taken as a basis for other cities. 9. Hong Kong

Purchasing Power Index: 100.3 Hong Kong is an important center for international finance and trade, and the concentration of headquarters is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of per capita gross domestic product and gross urban product, Hong Kong is the richest city in China. 8. Manama

Purchasing power index: 100.6 Manama is the capital and main economic center of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The basis of the economy of Manama - like the whole of Bahrain - is the financial market, the construction of coasters - dhows, fishing and pearling. 7. Toronto

Purchasing Power Index: 101.5 Toronto is part of the "golden horseshoe" - a densely populated region around the western part of Lake Ontario with a population of about 7 million people. Approximately one third of Canada's population lives within a 500 km radius of Toronto. About a sixth of all Canada's jobs are within city limits. The city of Toronto is also known as the "economic engine" of Canada, is considered one of the leading metropolitan areas in the world and has a lot of weight both in the region and at the state and international level. 6. Chicago

Purchasing Power Index: 105.8 Chicago is rightfully considered the economic, industrial, transportation and cultural capital of the Midwest. One of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks is located in Chicago, the largest exchanges are the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, united in the CME Group, the Chicago Stock Exchange, the Chicago Stock Exchange, OneChicago. The Chicago Loop is the business center of Chicago, the second largest in the United States after Manhattan. It houses stock exchanges, the headquarters of such well-known companies as United Airlines, Boeing and others. 5. Luxembourg

Purchasing power index: 117.3 Luxembourg is a highly developed industrial country, one of the most prosperous countries in Europe, a major international financial and tourist center. The structure of GDP is dominated by services, finance and trade. These industries employ about 50% of the economically active population. 4. Geneva

Purchasing power index: 118.0 The city hosts the headquarters of numerous international organizations, including the European branch of the United Nations, the Red Cross, WTO, WHO, CERN. Geneva is also a world financial center. The Large Hadron Collider is located near the city. The Geneva economy is mainly service-oriented. The city is an important and oldest center for financial services, focusing primarily on private banking, as well as finance and international trade. 3. Miami

Purchasing Power Index: 121.7 Miami is one of the most important financial centers in the US. It is a major center for commerce, finance and large multinational business groups. Tourism is also an important part of Miami's economy. The combination of financial and business institutions, beaches, conferences, festivals and events attracts more than 38 million visitors to the city. 2. Zurich

Purchasing Power Index: 122.5 Zurich is often referred to as the economic and financial capital of Switzerland. Zurich is home to the headquarters of many Swiss banks and insurance companies (UBS, Credit Suisse, Swiss Re, Zurich Financial Services) and the Swiss Stock Exchange. All this makes Zurich one of the world's major financial centers. The city is home to the headquarters of Barry Callebaut, one of the world's leading chocolate producers. 1. Los Angeles

Purchasing power index: 123.9 Los Angeles is one of the world's largest cultural, scientific, economic and educational centers. Also, the city is one of the world's largest entertainment centers in the field of cinema, theater, music, literature and television.

The consumer price index (CPI) characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. The CPI is one of the most important indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population.

The CPI is applied:

To assess changes in the cost of living and inflation in the country;

· to revise government social programs (the basis for raising the minimum wage, indexing the subsistence minimum, indexing the minimum pension, substantiating subsidies and subsidies to prices that do not allow a decrease in the level of consumption of essential goods and services by the population);

· in determining the state policy in the field of finance, regulation of the real exchange rate of the national currency, analysis and forecast of price processes;

· for recalculation of indicators of the system of national accounts from current to comparable prices.

To characterize changes in prices for consumer goods and services, a system of indices is used, with which you can solve various problems. This system is formed by:

· consolidated CPI, which characterizes the change in a fixed (basic) full set of goods and services purchased on average per family;

· consolidated CPI, which characterizes the change in the cost of a fixed set of goods and services, with the exception of unwanted goods (alcoholic beverages and tobacco products);

· consolidated CPI, showing the change in the cost of a fixed set of goods and services without non-essential goods (luxury goods, gold jewelry, cars, and especially fashionable goods);

· cost of living index, which characterizes the change in the cost of a fixed set of 25 basic foodstuffs;

· the index of the control cost of the necessary social set, which characterizes the change in the cost of a fixed set of basic consumer goods and services traditional for the population of the Russian Federation, the composition and consumption volumes of which are necessary to ensure human life and preserve his health (37 items);

· CPI for certain socio-demographic groups of the population.

The CPI measures the change in the value of a fixed set of goods and services in the current period compared to its value in the previous (base) period.

The "basket" of basic consumer goods and services is fixed so that changes in the CPI cause only changes in prices, but not changes in consumption patterns due to changes in income or purchases of other goods. Therefore, the CPI is also called the cost of living index.

The consumer “basket” for calculating the CPI representatively includes:

Goods and services of mass consumer demand,

Individual goods and services of non-mandatory use (jewelry, furs, cars, car maintenance, etc.).

For international comparisons, the CPI is used for the whole range of consumed goods.

The CPI without non-essential goods is used to measure the inflation rate.

The calculation of the CPI includes the following steps:

· selection of geographical boundaries of observation;

selection of basic trade and service enterprises;

Selection of goods-representatives and services-representatives;

registration of prices for goods and tariffs for paid services;

· formation of the structure of weights for the calculation of the consumer market price index;

calculation of the consumer price index;

calculation of average prices (tariffs) for goods and services.

Two sources of information are used to calculate the CPI:

a) statistical observation of changes in prices and tariffs in the consumer market;

b) sample surveys of income, expenditure and consumption of households (provide data on the structure of actual consumption expenditures of the population for the previous year).

To determine the weights in the CPI, in addition to household surveys, additional information is also used: data on the structure of retail trade, on the production of certain types of products, and expert estimates.

In 1991, a special state service for monitoring and registering changes in prices and tariffs was established under the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation. As part of this service, regular non-continuous monitoring of the level and dynamics of consumer prices and the calculation of the CPI throughout Russia were organized.

In each region, in addition to the administrative center, the most important regional centers in terms of socio-economic development and geographical location with a fairly high degree of saturation of the consumer market are selected.

Regional bodies of state statistics, using the method of the main array, select basic trade and service enterprises in their region. The scope of observation representatively includes enterprises of all forms of ownership and organizational and legal forms.

Prices are registered according to a single set of goods (services) for all regions of the Russian Federation - representatives most often consumed by the population.

The consumer set for calculating the CPI consists of three large groups:

· Foodstuffs,

· Non-grocery goods,

paid services rendered to the population.

Each group is represented by goods (services) or small product subgroups.

Such a consumer set is formed at the federal level and remains unchanged for a long time (usually at least a year).

In each specific region, the general description of the product group is detailed by those representative products that occupy a significant volume in the regional consumer market and will be offered for a long time. The selection of a representative product from the product group it represents is made taking into account the mass nature of demand (the share of this product in the sales volume of the product group) and the regularity of its sale at the base enterprise.

To calculate the CPI, the formula is used Laspeyres price index, but not the aggregate form, but the arithmetic weighted average of individual price indices, calculated on the basis of expenditure structure indicators. The weight is the share of consumer spending of the population on a certain representative product.

The Laspeyres price formula is transformed as follows:

,

where Q 0 - the cost of an individual product in the consumer "basket" of the base period;

The share of household spending on a specific j-th product in the total volume of consumer spending in the base period;

Individual basic price index for the j-th representative product,

Average prices of the goods, respectively, of the current and base periods. They are calculated as simple arithmetic averages of the prices registered in the selected base outlets:

where M is the number of outlets.

The index shows how many times (or by how many percent) the consumer spending of the population in the current period would change compared to the previous one, if the level of consumption remained the same when prices changed.

The formula with individual basic indexes is difficult to use because over long periods of time, the range of goods sold changes, goods are replaced, and the structure of commodity flows changes. Therefore, the individual basic price index is calculated as the product of chain individual price indices:

The use of chain price comparisons facilitates the introduction of new products or their replacement when the need arises.

When calculating the price index using the Laspeyres formula, three questions need to be addressed:

selection of the base year for constant weights,

determination of the period of use of weighting factors without their revision,

· linking the index calculated after the revision of the weights with pre-existing time series of price indices.

The calculation of the consolidated CPI is carried out on a monthly, quarterly basis, as well as on an accrual basis for the period from the beginning of the year. CPI is calculated on a monthly basis for the previous month of the current year and for the corresponding month of the previous year, as well as a cumulative total from the beginning of the year to the corresponding period of the previous year. Calculation of price indices for a quarter, half a year, period from the beginning of the year is carried out by the chain method, i.e. by multiplying monthly consumer price indices.

Statistics prove that the use of the Laspeyres formula tends to overestimate the real change in prices. So, if the prices of some consumer goods increase relative to other goods, then consumers reduce spending on these goods. By replacing more expensive goods with some cheaper ones, consumers can buy a set of goods and services that is adequate to the previous one, but it will cost them less than buying the previous set at the new prices.

The consumer price index calculated using this formula does not take into account qualitative changes either. If the quality of goods and services improves, their prices must also rise. However, it is assumed that the entire increase in the monetary value of the consumer "basket" is entirely due to inflation, and not to an improvement in the quality characteristics of goods and services. Consequently, the calculation on a fixed set is correct only for a short period of time, if during this time there are no significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the structure of consumer spending. Under these conditions, the CPI will adequately reflect changes in the cost of living.

The consumer price index based on the modified Laspeyres formula is calculated at the regional and federal levels.

The composite price index for Russia is calculated as a weighted average of regional indices, the weight is the share of the population of the corresponding area in the total population:

where is the consumer price index in the k-th region;

The share of the k-th region in the total population of Russia.

This methodology for calculating the CPI is common for many countries, which allows for international comparisons. All large industrial countries regularly publish their own consumer price indices.

In the UK, this index is called retail price indices, has been calculated since 1914 and published monthly by the Central Statistical Office. The weight characteristics change annually based on the results of the “average family” expenditure survey. Separately, two “pensioner” indices are calculated, which take into account the weighted characteristics of the expenses of single pensioners or families with two pensioners, respectively.

In the US, the consumer price index has been calculated since 1919. Its main purpose is to reflect the level of inflation in the country and serve as a basis for wage negotiations. Moreover, two variants of the consumer price index are calculated. One is for employees who live in urban areas, the other is for people who do not live in urban areas. In addition, indices are calculated that take into account changes in the field of taxation, social insurance and protection.

Purchasing power index of money calculated as the reciprocal of the CPI:

Its value shows the relative change in the purchasing power of money in the hands of the population. If, for example, inflation in the consumer sector was 12.5% ​​for the year (prices for consumer goods and services increased by an average of 12.5%), this means that the CPI = 1.125, and . The result shows that the purchasing power of money decreased by an average of 11.1%, i.e. for the same amount of money, the population will buy goods less by 11.1% than in the base period, or, in other words, maintaining an unchanged standard of living today costs 11.1% more than yesterday.

Literature

1. Dolzhenkova V.G. PRICE STATISTICS: Study Guide. - M .: Information and publishing house "Filin", Rilant, 2000

2. Voronin V.F., Zhiltsova Yu.V. STATISTICS: Proc. allowance for universities. - M.: Economist, 2004

3. STATISTICS OF THE MARKET OF GOODS AND SERVICES: Textbook. - 2nd ed. revised and additional / I.K. Belyaevsky, G.D. Kulagina, L.A. Danchenok and others; Ed. I.K. Belyaevsky. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2002

Similar information.

Composite indices characterize the change in the aggregate. There may be several aggregates, but the one that changes is put under the index sign, and the index acquires the appropriate name for the aggregate.

Aggregate form is the main form of summary indexes. To calculate aggregate indices, it is necessary to know the quantitative characteristics of each aggregate.

Aggregate index is a complex relative indicator that characterizes the average change in a socio-economic phenomenon, consisting of incommensurable elements.

Numerator and denominator aggregate index is the sum of the products of two quantities, one of which changes (indexed value), and the other remains unchanged in the numerator and denominator of the index (weight).

indexed value called the sign, the change of which is being studied.

Index weight is a value that serves for the purposes of comparing indexed values.

Aggregate index of the physical volume of production:

In this index, the indexed value will be the quantity of products in physical terms (q), and the weight will be the price (p).

The numerator of the fraction shows the conditional value of goods produced in the current period at the prices of the base period.

The denominator is the actual value of goods produced in the base period.

The index shows how many times the cost of products will increase or decrease due to an increase or decrease in the volume of its production, or what percentage is the increase (decrease) in the cost of products as a result of a change in the physical volume of its production.

The difference between the numerator and denominator shows how many rubles the cost of products has changed as a result of an increase or decrease in the volume of its production.

Aggregate price index:

Paasche index

– Laspeyres index

The index shows how many times the cost of products has increased or decreased due to price changes, or how many percent is the increase (decrease) in the cost of products as a result of price changes.

As a rule, the values ​​of these two indexes do not match. The difference in values ​​is explained by the fact that the indices have different economic content.

Paasche index shows how much goods in the current period became more expensive or cheaper than in the base period.

Index Laspeyres a shows how many times the price of goods in the base period would rise or fall in price due to changes in prices for them in the reporting period.

The Paasche index tends to underestimate, while the Laspeyres index tends to overestimate inflation rates. The Laspeyres index is used to calculate the consumer basket, otherwise called the "cost of living index". The Paasche Index is an index of retail prices used to analyze their changes.

When a trend is detected when studying price dynamics, the Fisher price index is used for smoothing.

To take into account the change in the consumer basket over time, the Marshall price index is calculated:

The product of the Laspeyres price index and the Pasche volume index is turnover index.

Index relationship formula or the simplest multiplicative factorial model.

Multiplicative Models consider the influence of factors in their work.

Thus, the production cost index, or the turnover index, is the ratio of the cost of production of the current period to the cost of production in the base period and is determined by the formula:

This index shows how many times the cost of production (commodity turnover) of the reporting period has increased (decreased) compared to the base period, or how many percent is the increase (decrease) in the cost of products.

If 100% is subtracted from the value of the cost index, then the difference will show by how many percent the cost of production has increased (decreased) in the current period compared to the base one.

The difference between the numerator and denominator shows how many rubles the cost of production has changed in the current period compared to the base one.

In practice, when studying the influence of factors on the result, it is often necessary to determine not the percentage, but the cost. In this case, the analysis is carried out using additive models or the sum difference method. To do this, in the multiplicative model, it is necessary to subtract the denominator from the numerator.

Additive turnover model.

The change in turnover occurs under the influence of changes in two factors: price and quantity of goods.

– savings or overspending that will be received by the population as a result of price changes.

One of the most important indicators of price statistics is the consumer price index. This index is widely used in the revision of social programs, serves as the basis for raising the minimum wage and reflects the real purchasing power of money.

Purchasing power index is the reciprocal of the price index.

Purchasing power- the ability to purchase any goods for one monetary unit. It is calculated through the purchasing power index.

Example. Let the price index = 1.43 or 143%. Consequently, the price increased by 43%. Determine the change in the purchasing power of the ruble.

Purchasing power index - 1/1.43 = 0.6993 or 69.93%.

Consequently, the purchasing power of the ruble decreased by 30.07% (100% - 69.93%).

The use of indices in economic analysis makes it possible to directly compare incommensurable phenomena, to assess the role of individual factors that form a given socio-economic phenomenon.

Indices are expressed in coefficients and percentages.

All indices in statistics are divided into classes: individual and summary

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Individual indices

I.i. \u003d (ATS in the reporting period) / (ATS in the base period)

There are generally accepted designations of economic quantities by indices:

q - quantity, p - product price, z - cost, t - time spent on production of 1 unit. products (labor intensity), T=t*q - total time spent or number of workers, w=q/T - production output per 1 worker per unit of time in value terms or labor productivity, v - also in physical terms, pq - product cost or turnover, zq - production costs.

Index 0 means that this is the value for the base period, 1 - for the reporting period. A value that changes in an index is called indexed.

Individual indices are denoted by "i", and summary indices by "I".

Individual indices are chain and basic. This allows one to calculate some indices through others based on the connection of chain and basic ATS. Two adjacent chain indices, when multiplied, give a basic one. Dividing the subsequent basic index by the previous one gives the chain index.

Examples of individual signs and the relationship between them:

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Composite Indices

Composite indices are a relative indicator that makes it possible to assess the dynamics of complex socio-economic phenomena in time and space, consisting of directly incommensurable phenomena. Most often, depending on the purpose of the study and the initial data, 2 forms of constructing composite indices are used in the analysis: aggregate and weighted average.

The use of composite indices is a further development of the theory of averages.

The composite index consists of: indexed value and co-measurement, called weight.

Composite indices denote "I"
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Aggregate indices

Aggregate indices of fixed composition

Here X is the value being indexed, and f is the weight, or commensurate

Both indexes refer to indexes of fixed or constant composition.

Composite indices show the deterioration of complex socio-economic phenomena.

Therefore, the product of the indexed value by the co-meter is always a real economic indicator.

P

Rules for choosing the form of the index:

1. 
   indices of a fixed composition of qualitative characteristics (price, cost, salary, capital intensity, labor intensity, capital productivity, labor productivity) have weights for the reporting or current period - form 2
2. 
   indices of a fixed composition of volume indicators (manufactured or sold products, time spent on production, number of workers, volume, sown areas) have weights of the base period - form 1

Fixed composition indices are aggregate indices expressing the dynamics of the average level of the indicator due to the indexed value.

This means that the price levels in the reporting period increased by 30% compared to the base period due to changes in the price level for certain types of products. This is standard output.

Indices of a fixed composition, qualitative and volume indicators, are interconnected - if they are multiplied (only within the framework of a system of interrelated economic indicators), then an index of qualitative and quantitative indicators will be obtained.

The quantitative and qualitative index shows the change in the quantitative and qualitative indicator in the reporting period to the volume of the quantitative and qualitative indicator in the base period - due to 2 factors (here p and q)
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Aggregate indices of variable composition.

Examples of Variable Composition Indices

Index of variable price composition - shows the dynamics of the average price level in the reporting period compared to the base one due to changes in the price level for individual goods and the structure of trade.

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Indices of structural shifts

I str - structure index shows a change in the average level of a qualitative indicator due to a change in the structure of the phenomenon under study.

At the same time, only the structure changes, the qualitative indicator is fixed at the basic level. The index of structural shifts can be calculated through other indices:

The index shows the change in production on average due to changes in the structure.

Example: there is data on the production and cost of homogeneous products produced by 2 enterprises:

Let's calculate the cost index of a fixed composition, where the weight is taken at the level of the reporting period.

Conclusion: the cost in the reporting period decreased relative to the base average by 2% due to changes in the cost of each enterprise.

Conclusion: the cost of production at two enterprises decreased in the reporting period compared to the baseline by an average of 1% due to changes in the structure of output products of the two companies.

Conclusion: average the cost in the reporting period compared with the average cost in the base period decreased by 2% due to 2 factors: due to changes in the cost for each enterprise and due to changes in the structure of products.

Conclusion: the physical volume of manufactured products increased by an average of 7% due to an increase in the volume of manufactured products for each enterprise.

Conclusion: the cost of production in the reporting period increased by 5% compared to the base period due to an increase in output for each enterprise and an increase in the cost of two enterprises.
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Purchasing power index of the ruble

The purchasing power index of the ruble shows the change in the volume of material goods and services that can be bought for the same amount of money. It is regarded as the reciprocal of the price index.
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Paasche and Laspeyras indices

The Paasche index is a price index with reporting weights

The Laspeyras index is a price index with basic weights

The Laspeyras index is used to evaluate price movements or estimate the cost of living.

The Laspetsras index is larger than the Paasche index, this is due to the fact that the prices of the Laspeyras index are growing faster. This was first discovered by Gershen Korn, and he named this effect after himself.
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Ideal Fisher index

It sometimes shows price dynamics more accurately than other indices, but it cannot be interpreted economically.